Classic Form: If you are unsure of the enemy's position or intentions, make a conspicuous but non-committal move—like beating the grass with a stick—to provoke a reaction. The enemy's response, or the "startled snake," will reveal their location, strength, and plans.
Modern Version: Launch low-level cyber attacks, targeted lawsuits (lawfare), or controlled information leaks to test an adversary's defenses and response protocols. The objective is not to achieve a decisive victory with the initial probe, but to gather critical intelligence from the reaction it provokes.
AI-Powered Execution: An adversary can deploy automated AI bots to launch thousands of low-level "probes" simultaneously across a wide range of targets. These can include spam comments with specific keywords on social media, minor denial-of-service attacks on non-critical servers, or fake friend requests sent to employees of a target organization. AI monitoring tools then analyze the responses in real time, flagging accounts, individuals, or network nodes that react defensively or in a pre-determined manner. This automated process reveals the hidden "snakes"—sensitive network segments, counter-disinformation teams, or key personnel—within the target system.
CCP Application: CCP-backed hacking groups like Volt Typhoon continuously conduct subtle, low-intensity cyber intrusions against U.S. critical infrastructure. These probes are designed to test network defenses, identify response times, map system architecture, and reveal vulnerabilities without triggering a full-scale national security alert. Similarly, the CCP may use its diplomatic corps to make a controversial statement or float a provocative proposal to gauge the political reaction and unity of an alliance like NATO or the Quad, using the response to calibrate its future strategy.
Collaborators: Lazy security analysts who dismiss these probes as "random" noise or low-level hacking attempts rather than recognizing them as part of a coordinated intelligence-gathering campaign. Politicians and diplomats who react emotionally and predictably to provocations, providing the CCP with a clear roadmap of their decision-making processes and red lines.
Counter: Monitor, log, and analyze every small probe—whether cyber, legal, or diplomatic. Map the adversary's patterns of probing against your own responses to identify the intelligence they are seeking. Develop unpredictable and varied response protocols to avoid telegraphing your defensive posture. A snake only strikes what it sees; the goal is to remain unseen or to present a misleading image.