Economic Warfare

What it is. Steering choices through prices, access, and dependency instead of overt force. Tools include tariffs, export controls, strategic subsidies, supply-chain leverage, standards, and concessional finance. The aim is to shape incentives so targets choose what you want—even under stress.

Crisis Arbitrage

Domain: Economic Warfare · Stratagems: 5, 16, 24

Problem / betrayal. During shocks, rivals buy ports, minerals, and grids on the cheap.

How it happened. USTR’s Section 301 four-year review details tech-transfer coercion and cyber-enabled IP theft; tariff actions and updates track the response. United States Trade Representative.

The men behind it. State-linked firms, sovereign funds, “friendly” banks.

Consequences. Dependency by contract; policy leverage later.

Warning. If you sell the hinge, expect the door to swing.

Counter-Orders

  • Audit: screen FDI at chokepoints; stress-test supply chains.
  • Inoculate: golden-share rights; allied backstop buying.
  • Isolate: align export controls with sectoral tariffs and §337 tools. United States Trade Representative.

Operating model

  • Actors: states, SOEs, sovereign funds, regulators, standards bodies, keystone firms.
  • Levers: market access, logistics chokepoints, commodity custody, financing terms, IP & standards.
  • Mechanisms: create dependency → time the shock → extract concession → normalize the new baseline.
  • Escalation ladder: price signals → licensing friction → targeted controls → systemic embargo.
  • Success metrics: policy shifts secured, resilience gap widened, rival CAPEX diverted.

Tactic clusters (curated, non-repetitive)

1) Crisis Arbitrage

Exploit shocks to buy strategic assets and lock in long-term supply.

Stratagems: 5 Loot a Burning House, 24 Borrow the Road to Conquer Guo

Application: Acquire distressed logistics, ports, or mineral concessions during currency or debt crises; attach maintenance/finance terms that entrench influence.
Countermeasures: FDI screening, allied backstop buying, golden-share controls.

2) Dependency Design

Engineer reliance on your inputs or standards before changing the terms.

Stratagems: 1 Fool the Emperor to Cross the Sea, 16 To Catch Something, First Let It Go, 17 Toss Out a Brick to Attract Jade

Application: Offer generous licensing and subsidies to seed your tech stack; once embedded, shift to compliance and data-custody demands.
Countermeasures: Multi-vendor architectures, exit clauses, escrowed IP & interoperability mandates.

3) Indirect Coercion

Signal to small actors to discipline big ones—deterrence by example.

Stratagems: 26 Point at the Mulberry but Curse the Locust Tree, 10 Hide Your Dagger Behind a Smile

Application: Penalize a minor exporter over compliance to warn the entire sector; publicly keep tone cooperative to avoid coalition backlash.
Countermeasures: Collective defense funds, joint legal counsel, transparent compliance benchmarks.

4) Institutional Capture

Influence standards, boards, and gatekeepers to tilt the rules.

Stratagems: 25 Replace the Beams with Rotten Timbers, 30 Exchange the Role of Guest for that of Host

Application: Place aligned voices on standards committees; steer definitions that privilege your specifications and certifications.
Countermeasures: Open governance in SDOs, rotation rules, conflict-of-interest disclosures.

5) Chokepoint Management

Control or congest key nodes to reshape bargaining power.

Stratagems: 22 Shut the Door to Catch the Thief, 18 First Capture Their Leader

Application: License critical chemicals or EDA tools through a few firms; squeeze quietly via audits and quotas until policy concessions emerge.
Countermeasures: Stockpile buffers, on-shoring for single points of failure, shared licensing pools.

6) Narrative Hedging

Wrap coercion in cooperation so partners rationalize compliance.

Stratagems: 8 Repair the Walkway, March to Chencang, 14 Borrow a Corpse to Raise the Spirit

Application: Brand export controls as “safety” standards; cite prior international practices to frame restrictions as normal.
Countermeasures: Independent impact assessments, rival safety baselines, multilateral transparency.

Failure modes & risks

  • Substitution: targets re-route via alternative suppliers and standards.
  • Blowback: retaliation harms your own firms and innovation pipeline.
  • Coalitions: overreach triggers balancing alliances and shared stockpiles.

Related: browse stratagem details by number on the site’s Stratagems section.