Asymmetric & Irregular Warfare
What it is. Achieving outsized effects via low-cost, deniable, or unconventional actions. Tools include proxies, cyber militias, maritime swarming, sabotage, law enforcement fronts, and economic harassment. The aim is to stretch defenders without triggering open war.
Operating model
- Actors: intelligence services, paramilitaries, contractors, aligned gangs, front firms.
- Levers: ambiguity, attrition, dispersion, plausible deniability, tempo.
- Mechanisms: probe → adapt → multiply → exhaust.
- Escalation ladder: harassment → disruption → paralysis → fait accompli.
- Success metrics: cost asymmetry, delay gains, opponent posture changes.
The Blue Fleet That Isn’t
Domain: Asymmetric & Irregular · Stratagems: 6, 12, 18
Problem / betrayal. “Fishing boats” mass at reefs, box in cutters, and change maps without firing a shot. DoD’s China Military Power Report (CMPR) covers the maritime militia (PAFMM). U.S. Department of War.
How it happened. Subsidized hulls, AIS games, close coordination with coast guard and PLA outposts. U.S. Department of War.
The men behind it. Port cadres, subsidy channels, militia chiefs.
Consequences. Insurance spikes; small states back down.
Warning. Gray water is still war.
Counter-Orders (quarter)
- Audit: hull/MMSI registry tied to patrol logs and imagery. U.S. Department of War.
- Inoculate: publish incident photos within 24h; train entanglement drills.
- Isolate: sanction subsidy organs; deny harbor services to state-tied fleets. U.S. Department of War.
Tactic clusters (curated, non-repetitive)
1) Ambush by Invitation
Lure targets into exposed terrain.
Stratagems: 15 Lure the Tiger…, 6 Clamor in the East…
Application: Stage distractions to pull assets off-station; strike elsewhere.
Countermeasures: Decoys, distributed readiness, red-team drills.
2) Deniable Hands
Strike via proxies to blur attribution.
Stratagems: 3 Borrowed Sword, 35 Combining Tactics
Application: Blend cyber, legal, and street-level pressure.
Countermeasures: Pattern attribution, collective response thresholds, sanction toolkits.
3) Cut the Fuel Lines
Isolate the effort from its enablers.
Stratagems: 19 Steal the Firewood…, 22 Shut the Door…
Application: Target logistics, spares, and refueling nodes.
Countermeasures: Redundant routes, stockpiles, resilient maintenance.
4) Shed & Survive
Slip the net and reappear.
Stratagems: 21 Golden Cicada, 36 Retreat
Application: Rotate identities/infrastructure; preserve core capacity.
Countermeasures: Cross-domain fusion centers, persistent tracking, longitudinal intel.
5) Shock Microdoses
Small, frequent disruptions produce strategic fatigue.
Stratagems: 13 Beat the Grass…, 28 Lure on the Roof…
Application: Repeated minor incursions normalize altered status quo.
Countermeasures: Pre-declared tripwires, automatic responses, alliance rotation.
6) Message in the Method
Operations chosen for psychological and political effect.
Stratagems: 10 Hide Your Dagger…, 33 Sowing Discord
Application: Calibrated visibility to split coalitions.
Countermeasures: Unified comms, attribution-sharing, narrative hygiene.
Failure modes & risks
- Escalation error: misread thresholds trigger open conflict.
- Attribution drift: deniability collapses; sanctions ensue.
- Normalization: complacency invites bolder moves.
Related: Cyber & Tech, Lawfare.